Vivendi split into 4 companies

A disastrous project

The proposed spin-off of the Vivendi Group will be submitted for shareholder approval at the upcoming Annual General Meeting on December 9, 2024.

If approved, the three companies Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette Group, will become independent entities, each listed separately on the London Stock Exchange, Euronext Amsterdam, and Euronext Growth Paris.

The analysis uncovers surprising responses

  • The smoke screen presented to shareholders
  • The circumvention of rules and procedures
  • The true objective: increasing the controlling shareholder’s power

01

The  spin-off proposal 

What does it involve? Under what conditions?

the story

December 2023: the project is announced

The Vivendi Group announces that it is studying a spin-off project, with few details. It is natural to think that the companies will be listed on Euronext Paris.

  • 1

    The initial announcement

    On December 13, 2023, Vivendi announces that it is studying a project to split its activities into several entities.
  • 2

    The explanation

    Vivendi explains that it suffers from a very high conglomerate discount that significantly reduces its valuation.
  • 3

    The consequences

    This discount limits its ability to carry out external growth operations for its subsidiaries.
  • 4

    The goal

    The spin-off should allow the full development potential of all these activities to be unleashed.

before/after

Company structure

Vivendi, a group listed on Euronext Paris

  • Groupe Canal+

    Pôle France 
    Pôle international
    Studiocanal

  • Lagardère (60.48%)

    Lagardère Publishing
    Lagardère Travel Retail
    Lagardère News
    Lagardère Live Entertainment

  • Havas

    Havas Creative
    Havas Media
    Havas Health & You

  • Prisma media

    Diffusion
    Publicité

  • Gameloft

    OTT
    Gameloft Business Solutions
    Gameloft for Brands

  • Vivendi Village

    Billetterie
    Festivals
    Salles de spectacle

  • New initiatives

    Dailymotion
    Groupe Vivendi Africa

  • Stakes

    Telecom Italia
    Prisa
    MediaForEurope
    Multichoice Group
    Viu International Ltd
    Viaplay Group AB

4 companies, listed on 4 different stock exchanges including 2 abroad

London Stock Exchange

Canal+ Group

Canal+
DailyMotion
Multichoice group (45.2%)
Viu (36.8%)
Viaplay Group A.B (29.3%)

euronext amsterdam

HAVAS N.V.

Havas Creative
Havas Media
Havas Health & You

euronext growth paris

Louis Hachette Group

Lagardère (66.53%)
Prisma Media

euronext A paris

Groupe Vivendi

GAMELOFT 100%
MediaForEurope 19,79%
BANIJAY GROUP 19.2%
Telecom Italia 17%
Prisa 11,9%
UMG 9,98%
TELEFONICA 1%

Timeline

A calculated timing

Spin-Off Announcements: A Multi-Stage Plan

It is only at the end of July 2024 that the stock exchanges are revealed

  • Project Announcement

    Vivendi explains...

    Vivendi is experiencing a significant conglomerate discount, which is greatly reducing its valuation and limiting its ability to pursue external growth opportunities for its subsidiaries.

    To fully unlock the growth potential of all its operations, the Management Board proposed to the Supervisory Board a plan to explore a spin-off into multiple entities, including Canal+, Havas, and an investment company. This spin-off would provide all operations with the necessary human resources and financial agility to support their growth.

    Link

    Context

    Financial markets welcomed the spin-off proposal. The stock saw a significant increase, indicating that the project appears promising.

    VIV-PA Stock Price

    8.96 €

  • Structuring into 4 Entities

    Vivendi explains...

    The Supervisory Board approved the Management Board’s proposal to structure the spin-off around four entities: Canal+, Havas, a new entity consolidating publishing and distribution assets (to become Louis Hachette Group), and an investment company.

    The project must demonstrate its added value for all stakeholders and include an analysis of the tax implications of the various proposed transactions. Several key steps must be completed, including, “when the time comes, the consent of Vivendi shareholders.”

    Link

    Context

    The stock continues its upward trend, driven by news suggesting a well-executed spin-off.

    VIV-PA Stock Price

    10.29 €

  • The Surprise of the Stock Exchanges

    Vivendi explains...

    The study “demonstrated the feasibility of the project under satisfactory conditions and identified the most suitable stock exchanges for the three companies once separated from Vivendi.”

    Canal+ will be listed on the London Stock Exchange “to reflect the company’s international scope.”

    Havas will be listed as a Dutch public limited company (NV) on Euronext Amsterdam. To “stabilize its capital and ensure its independence,” a Dutch foundation will be established.

    A new company, Louis Hachette Group, combining Lagardère SA and Prisma Media, will be listed on Euronext Growth Paris.

    Link

    Context

    Three days before the opening of the Olympic Games, the press is focused on the political turmoil following the dissolution of the National Assembly. However, the markets are displeased with the listing of the new entities on unregulated markets, leading to a decline in the stock price.

    VIV-PA Stock Price

    10.68 €

  • Notice of the General Meeting

    Vivendi explains...

    The Supervisory Board and the Management Board have agreed to convene a General Meeting of Shareholders to vote on the spin-off proposal on December 9, 2024, at 3:00 PM at the Folies Bergère, 32 rue Richer, 75009 Paris.

    The Capital Market Days for Canal+ and Havas will be held on November 18 and 19, 2024, respectively. A live broadcast of both conferences will be available on the websites of the respective companies.

    If the spin-off proposal is approved, the initial listing of shares for the three companies will occur on December 16, 2024. December 13, 2024, will be the deadline for investors wishing to participate in the spin-off to acquire Vivendi shares.

    Link

    Context

    A brief and slight rebound followed the announcement, but a new downward trend emerged once investors analyzed the proposal.

    VIV-PA Stock Price

    10.27 €

  • Publication of the Prospectuses

    Steps

    Announcement in the BALO (Bulletin of Mandatory Legal Announcements)

    Publication of the Canal+ and Havas prospectuses

    Spin-Off Agreement between Vivendi and Louis Hachette Group link

    Management Board report on the partial spin-off project for Canal+, the partial spin-off project for Louis Hachette Group, and the exceptional in-kind distribution of Havas N.V. shares. link

    Contexte

    Nothing reassuring can be found in the documents presented. Analysts and institutional investors are not mistaken. Confidence in the spin-off project has been severely shaken. The verdict is clear: the stock falls below €10 on the same day. Two weeks later, it drops further below €9 (€8.89 on November 12, 2024), erasing nearly all the gains of the past year.

    VIV-PA Stock Price

    9.97 €

  • Vote at the General Meeting

    Steps

    Vote on the spin-off proposal at the Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM)

    A two-thirds majority is required for Canal+ and Louis Hachette, and a 50% majority for Havas.

    Context

    Should we vote for the spin-off proposal at the General Meeting? A thorough review is essential.

    VIV-PA Stock Price

    ?.? €

the market reaction

The market believes it's a good project...

The press and financial markets responded rather well to the initial project announcement in December 2023, as it aims to eliminate the discount.

Reuters

"Shares in media giant Vivendi surge on break-up planl," Reuters reported on December 14, 2023.

Financial Times

"Vincent Bolloré changes tack with Vivendi break-up plan. Growing valuation discount since Universal Music spin-out has been a source of frustration for French billionaire"

Challenges

"Havas, Canal+: Vincent Bolloré, the financier, makes a comeback by dismantling Vivendi. At 71, Vincent Bolloré embarks once again on a high-level financial maneuver."

...but when the stock exchanges are announced, the sentiment becomes negative

The enthusiasm dissipates when the press and analysts understand the reasons for the choice of stock exchanges

Le Monde

Caroline Ruellan denounces, in an opinion piece in "Le Monde", Vivendi's plan to split into three entities listed on three different exchanges, to the detriment of Paris.

Les Echos

"On the LSE, the group will indirectly benefit from a legal loophole regarding public offerings" indicates Les Echos

The Times

Canal+ may not meet the criteria for inclusion in the FTSE 100. The major obstacle appears to be the likely 30.6% stake held by the Bolloré family once the company split is completed estimates the Times.

The Controlling Shareholder

The Bolloré Group

29.9%

The media refers to the eponymous businessman as the architect of this spin-off because the Bolloré Group is the controlling shareholder of Vivendi, holding 29.9% of the shares.

What You Need to Know

At 30%, Mandatory Public Offer

30%

On Euronext Paris, a regulated market, any shareholder who exceeds the threshold of 30% ownership in a company automatically triggers a mandatory public offer (MPO), as stipulated by the General Regulation of the French Financial Markets Authority (AMF).

Under the Microscope

Vivendi's discount.

Vivendi's undervaluation on the stock market is not solely due to a holding discount; it also includes a governance discount of 15%, according to analysts. Together, these two discounts make up the conglomerate discount, which currently stands at approximately 40%.

25%

Holding Discount

15%

Governance Discount

02

But the chosen listing venues are a bad choice for shareholders

Canal+ on the London Stock Exchange, Havas on Euronext Amsterdam, Louis Hachette Group on Euronext Growth Paris, while Vivendi remains on Euronext Paris. Why were these stock exchanges chosen? Is this a choice favorable to shareholders?

Choice of Stock Exchanges

The London Stock Exchange, a bad choice for Canal+

Vivendi believes Canal+ should be listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) due to the company's international scope. Indeed, "of the 26.4 million Canal+ subscribers, 63%, or 16.6 million, are located outside France, in over 50 countries."

But the majority is in Europe...
Canal+ Group

01

LSE: A Declining Media Sector

The Media sector on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) has been declining for several years. In June 2015, 80 media companies were listed on the LSE; by December 2023, this number had decreased to 45.

The FTSE 350 index is exclusively composed of UK-based media groups.

As a French company, Canal+ is likely to attract less investor interest if listed in London rather than Paris. Consequently, it is expected to experience an additional discount of approximately 5%.

Discount of 5%

Canal+ Group

02

A small market cap

Canal+ will become a small-cap company based on international criteria.

International investors will not be interested.

Discount estimated at 5%.

Canal+ Group

03

A risk to the broadcasting rights?

The argument presented by Vivendi’s executives, which is to develop an international shareholder base through the London listing, contradicts Article 40 of the French law of September 30, 1986, which limits the ownership of more than 20% of the capital of a French television company by non-EU individuals.

Vivendi had reminded international investors of this in 2015 when they sought to oppose resolutions.

Canal+ Group

04

Governance discount

Vivendi is currently experiencing a governance discount of 15% because it is 29.9% owned by the Bolloré Group.

After the spin-off, the discount will increase mechanically due to the Bolloré Group’s increased ownership of Canal+ shares, made possible by circumventing French regulations through the London listing.

The discount will therefore increase to 20%.

Bloomberg

Number of London-Listed Companies Shrank 25% Over a Decade

In 2023, the total number of listings on the LSE decreased by 6%, reaching 1,836 companies, according to Bloomberg.
January 29, 2024 – Source

An unexpected boost for the LSE?

The London Stock Exchange would be the ideal market for Canal+, according to Vivendi. Is this true? To find out, simply look at what the Anglo-Saxon press thinks.

London’s snaring of France’s Canal+ to revive moribund listing market
According to the Financial Times, the potential listing of Canal+ on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) is seen as a significant boost for the exchange, which has faced challenges in attracting new listings in recent years. The addition of a major international media company like Canal+ is expected to enhance the LSE’s appeal to investors and issuers alike.

If everything goes as planned, it will provide a major boost to the struggling London stock market, even if no new capital is raised and no new investors are introduced at the time of admission, according to The ‘Investor’s Chronicle  in an article dated November 1, 2024.

It is to be hoped that the potential listing of Canal+ (…) marks a turning point for the London market, explains the publication.

It’s not the London Stock Exchange that will help Canal+, it’s mainly Canal+ that will help the London Stock Exchange!

What is the real reason for Canal+'s listing on the LSE?

The Real Reason

Canal+ will be listed in London, but its headquarters will remain in France.

This will allow the Bolloré Group to take advantage of an exception to the regulations concerning public offers and increase its stake by repurchasing discounted Canal+ shares.

We estimate that a minimum discount of 30% will apply to Canal+ shares once listed on the LSE.

Choice of Stock Exchanges

What to make of Havas's listing on Amsterdam?

For those advocating the spin-off project, on Euronext Amsterdam, “Havas would be placed in the best conditions to implement its new global strategy, continue its solid growth as well as its strong commercial and creative momentum, and stabilize its capital.” Is this really the case?

Havas

01

Amsterdam and the media

Amsterdam is not a natural listing venue for media companies (barely 3% of the market), despite the initial success of UMG, RELX (dual listing), and WK.

There is no comparable company to Havas listed on Amsterdam.

Havas is much less international than Publicis… which is listed on Euronext Paris.

Discount of 5%

Havas

02

Why a foundation?

A “stichting” has no members: it is an “orphan” structure. Governance is exercised solely by its board of directors, which results in a significant discount of 20%.

It is a defense tool against takeovers, through control of voting rights: it is a very specific approach that locks out any opposition.

These are mainly advantages for the controlling shareholder… but obstacles for investors.

Havas

03

Amsterdam & Valuation

Amsterdam’s market is less diversified than Paris, while it is a significant listing venue for high-tech and semiconductor companies (ASML, Philips, Adyen…).

Amsterdam’s capitalization is lower than that of Euronext Paris, which also has higher daily trading volumes.

Holding discount of 15%

Havas

04

Governance discount

Vivendi currently experiences a governance discount of 15% due to its 29.9% ownership by the Bolloré Group.

Post-spin-off, this discount is expected to increase due to the Bolloré Group’s enhanced stake in Havas, facilitated by circumventing French regulations through the Amsterdam listing.

The discount will therefore rise to 20%.

What is the real reason for Havas's listing on Amsterdam?

The real reason

The listing of Havas in Amsterdam allows the Bolloré Group to gain full control through a Foundation and increase its stake by repurchasing discounted Havas shares, without being subject to mandatory public offer regulations in France.

We believe that a minimum discount of 45% will apply to Havas shares once listed on Amsterdam.

Choice of Stock Exchanges

Listing Louis Hachette Group on Euronext Growth is a bad choice

According to Vivendi, Louis Hachette Group's market value will benefit from moving from Euronext A to the Euronext Growth market.

Louis Hachette Group

01

Une incohérence de taille

Louis Hachette Group, which will own Lagardère (currently listed on Euronext Paris) and Prisma, will trade on Euronext Growth Paris, a market segment focused on small-cap stocks.

There are no comparable companies: the average market capitalization of companies trading on this exchange is under 90 million euros, while Louis Hachette will be worth around 2 billion euros!

This raises liquidity concerns. It's no coincidence that major media groups like Publicis, TF1, and JC-Decaux trade on Euronext A.

Liquidity discount of 5%

Louis Hachette Group

02

Why choose Euronext Growth?

Euronext Growth Paris is a multilateral trading facility (MTF) designed for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

It is not a regulated market, but rather a supervised market. The listing requirements are more flexible than Euronext A. Companies need less historical financial data and have lighter disclosure obligations.

Some institutional investors are therefore not permitted to buy securities on this market.

Louis Hachette Group

03

After the split, a holding company

Following the spin-off, Louis Hachette Group will become a pure holding company.

In fact, Prisma is much smaller in size compared to the stake in Lagardère.

Holding company discount of 15%

Louis Hachette Group

04

Corporate governance discount

After the spin-off, the discount will automatically increase due to Groupe Bolloré's larger ownership stake in Louis Hachette Group shares.

This increase is made possible by circumventing French regulations that apply on Euronext A, through listing on Euronext Growth where the mandatory tender offer threshold is 50% instead of 30%.

The discount will therefore increase to 20%

What is the real reason for Louis Hachette Group's transfer to Euronext Growth?

The real reason

The transfer of Louis Hachette Group to Euronext Growth allows Groupe Bolloré to maintain control without triggering a mandatory tender offer above 30% ownership (the threshold is 50% on Euronext Growth).
We expect a minimum 40% discount will apply to Louis Hachette Group shares once listed on this unregulated market.

What remains?

Vivendi will no longer be a major player on Euronext A

According to the announcement, following the spin-off, Vivendi will remain a major player in creative industries and entertainment listed on Euronext Paris's regulated market.

Groupe Vivendi

01

Minority stakes

After the spin-off, Vivendi remains a holding company, but less complex than it is currently.

It only retains minority stakes with no synergies between the assets.

The holding company discount increases to 20%

Groupe Vivendi

02

Drop in market capitalization

The spin-off reduces Vivendi to mid-cap status, which is inconsistent with remaining “a major player.”
Additionally, it will exit the CAC 40, and its liquidity is expected to decrease further.

Discount of 5%

Groupe Vivendi

03

An ongoing discount

After the spin-off, the governance discount will remain at 15% due to Groupe Bolloré’s 29.9% ownership stake.

Discount of 15%

What is the true purpose of this spin-off plan?

The actual purpose

The overall spin-off plan presented to shareholders will actually allow Groupe Bolloré to increase its stakes in each entity at a lower cost, after carefully circumventing French takeover regulations through financial and regulatory maneuvers.

Explanation

The Bolloré Group's Plan
to Increase Its Control

It all begins with Vivendi's share buyback

For Havas in Amsterdam...

2 - Euronext Amsterdam

A Public Offer is only mandatory when CROSSING the 30% ownership threshold in a Dutch company.

4 - All Shareholders Experience Accretion

Bolloré Group automatically increases from 29.9% of Vivendi to 31.04% of Canal+, Havas and LHG

1 - The Stock Repurchase

Vivendi has spent approximately 400 million euros on stock repurchases, including 250 million between early May and late August 2024

3 - At the Time of the Spin-off

Treasury shares do not carry rights to stakes in the new entities. Therefore, 991 million Canal+, Havas and LHG shares will be created instead of 1.03 billion Vivendi shares

5 - Tender Offer Avoided

Bolloré Group automatically crosses the 30% threshold without triggering a Mandatory Public Offer

03

This project does not serve the interests of retail shareholders

  • Contrary to statements made, we believe the demerger proposal serves neither the interests of the companies involved nor those of Vivendi's shareholders

  • We expect Vivendi's conglomerate discount to carry over to each of the listed entities

  • The demerger proposal represents a lost opportunity for shareholders, as the requirement for a mandatory takeover bid is eliminated due to the three chosen listing venues

  • Retail shareholders will incur additional costs of €1.28 due to applicable taxation, representing 15% of Vivendi's current share price

  • In light of these factors, we are compelled to vote AGAINST all three resolutions presented at the General Meeting on 9 December

Prospectus risk factors

Havas

1.7.1 There is no existing market for the Havas Ordinary Shares and an active trading market for the Havas Ordinary Shares may not develop or be sustained.

Havas

1.7.2 Anti-takeover mechanisms could delay or prevent a change of control of the Company, including a takeover attempt that might result in a premium over the market price for the Havas Ordinary Shares.

Havas

1.7.3 Bolloré SE will retain a significant interest in the Company upon Admission and its interests may differ from those of the other shareholders.

Havas

Upon Admission, Bolloré SE will hold 30.4% of the Company’s share capital and will be part of the Bolloré Concert, which will hold a total equity interest of 31.05% of the Company’s share capital. Bolloré SE is not subject to lock-up obligations and will therefore be able to sell its Havas Ordinary Shares on the market on or after the Listing Date. The market price for the Havas Ordinary Shares may fall in anticipation of a sale of such Havas Ordinary Shares.

Havas

1.7.4 The Company may not pay or declare dividends in the future.

Havas

1.7.8 Shareholders may not be able to exercise pre-emption rights or participate in certain future issues of Havas Ordinary Shares and U.S. and other overseas shareholders may not be able to participate in future issues of Havas Ordinary Shares.

Havas

1.7.9 The ability of overseas shareholders to bring actions or enforce judgments against the Company or the Directors may be limited.

Havas

1.7.7 The Company may decide to offer additional Havas Ordinary Shares in the future, diluting the interests of existing shareholders and potentially materially and adversely affecting the market price of Havas Ordinary Shares.
“prior to the Admission, the Board will be authorized, for a period of five (5) years from the date of the Vivendi General Meeting, to issue Havas Ordinary Shares, or grant rights to subscribe for Havas Ordinary Shares, up to ten percent. (10%) of the issued share capital of the Company as at the date of the Vivendi General Meeting, and to limit or exclude pre-emptive rights in connection with such issue of Havas Ordinary Shares (…)”

Canal+

“Further, because the Company will have a lower market capitalisation than Vivendi before completion of the Partial Demerger, there may be less liquidity in the market for the Canal+ Shares than in the current market for Vivendi Shares.”

Canal+

“If an active trading market is not developed or maintained, the liquidity and trading price of the Canal+ Shares could be materially and adversely affected.”

Canal+

“In exercising its voting rights, Bolloré SE may be motivated by interests that differ from those of the other Shareholders and the interests of Bolloré SE could conflict with or differ from the Company’s interests.”

Canal+

“The market price of the Canal+ Shares may decline disproportionately in response to developments that are unrelated to the Company’s operating performance.”

Canal+

“Because no takeover regulations apply, minority Shareholders might not benefit from the protections provided to them if such regulations did apply, including being able to benefit from the same terms and conditions
(including consideration) offered by an acquiror to selling Shareholders. This may also reduce the liquidity and value of remaining minority investors’ holdings in the Company.”

Our votes at the December 9, 2024 General Meeting

  • Approval of the partial spin-off project of Canal+ by Vivendi SE for Canal+'s admission to the London Stock Exchange (LSE)

  • Approval of the partial spin-off project of Louis Hachette Group (LHG) granted by Vivendi SE and its transfer from Euronext compartment A to Euronext Growth

  • Approval of the partial spin-off project of Havas granted by Vivendi SE for Havas's admission to Euronext Amsterdam